In the news
On 2 October, BBC Africa reported that 29 soldiers were killed in a suspected jihadist attack that happened on 29 September. Niger’s Ministry of Defence stated that more than a hundred terrorists utilised “improvised explosive devices and kamikaze vehicles” during the attack in the town of Kandadji in western Niger. The attack occurred during a military operation near the Mali border aiming at eradicating the potential threat by the terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State. Niger’s Minister of Defence Lt General Salifou Mody reported that a counteroffensive killed over 100 insurgents. Mody stated: "A search and sweep operation is now underway to track down the enemy."

The attack comes along the sidelines of rising Niger-French tensions post-coup. On 1 October, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French troops will withdraw from Niger by the end of the year. On 27 September, the French ambassador to Niger left the country a month after coup leaders ordered his expulsion. The tension increased after France refused to recognise the coup government. 

Issues at large
First, the threat posed by extremist groups. Since 2012, the Sahel region of Africa has been ravaged by armed group attacks linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State. These attacks began in northern Mali and quickly spread to Niger and Burkina Faso by 2015. Niger is combating two jihadist insurgencies. One stems from the insurgency in Nigeria towards its southeast, the other from militants infiltrating from the west through Mali and Burkina Faso. The region of Liptako-Gourma, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger converge, has been affected by Islamic State and al-Qaeda-linked insurgency. The latest attack is the deadliest since the military assumed control in Niger. The security situation in the Liptako Gourma has become significantly more challenging due to a surge in organised crime, banditry and violent intercommunal clashes.

Second, ECOWAS’ threat of military intervention and military alliance with Mali and Burkina Faso. On 16 September, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger signed a mutual defence pact in Bamako, Mali to create a system of mutual aid and collective defence. Additionally, the alliance between the three countries would be reinforced through the combined efforts of both economic and military means. The backing of neighbouring countries encouraged the Niger junta to take firm measures against France, ordering the withdrawal of 1500 French soldiers stationed in Niger as part of counter-insurgency operations. Previously, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) threatened military intervention in Niger which was met with opposition from Mali and Burkina Faso juntas, both of whom expressed support for Niger. 

Third, tensions with the West and isolating military regimes. Insurgent groups have increased their attacks in Mali and Burkina Faso following the withdrawal of Western and UN forces. Niger has become yet another example of escalating extremist assaults following a coup and the announcement of the departure of foreign forces. Mali and Burkina Faso are going through a similar trajectory after the French withdrawal that happened in August 2022 and February 2023 respectively. Around 1200 French troops and 1000 US troops are stationed in Niger fighting insurgency. The weakened military cooperation with the West following the coup has threatened the security situation.

In perspective
First, the deteriorating security situation. Since the military takeover, the security situation in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso has deteriorated. The extremist groups are gaining control of the Liptako-Gourma region. 

Second, a setback to Niger’s junta. The increasing attacks by the extremist groups would create a setback for the coup leaders, who deposed President Mohamed Bazoum blaming the country's deteriorating security situation as the reason. The junta promised to improve security while seizing power and received substantial support from the people. The junta may lose support if the attack by extremist groups continues on this scale.